Imagine the case that additional 2,000 units of Z15 (total 0.8 GSol/s) to be shipped upon halving and ZCASH price is still stuck around $57 level, while mining reward becomes half. So what will happen to miners upon halving? manages to survive, however I suspect they will not make much additional investment for Z15. On the other hand, legacy small miners with 8-10 cents/kWh mainly in Europe etc. I guess volume zone of ZCASH mining is average miners, i.e. Again this is just my GUESS.īased on some sources, I guess average tariff in mining industry is somewhere 4-5 cents/kWh, and now battle field is moving toward 3 cents/kWh level mainly in Kazakhstan, Russia, Iran, USA or by energy industry players. I allocated each model’s distribution by miners’ electricity tariff. Despite the marketing push by Bitmain, I guess just around 4,000 units of Z15 are under operation, since (i) recent ZCASH price recovery makes older models enough profitable to keep operating, and (ii) miners are waiting for Z15 discount post halving.īelow is absolute my guess based on communication with miners in Central Asia, China and Europe. Luxor published an interesting report, on which Luxor pool’s ZCASH hashrate contribution by models is disclosed (skewed to new models in Luxor pool).īased on this report and recent hashrate evolution (around 6.0-7.0 Gsol/s) after release of new Z15 model, I estimated following operating machines distribution by models as at October 2020 (GPU miner is ignored). Recent introduction of “Wrapped” ZCASH on Ethereum chain is an another supporting news to develop ZCASH ecosystem. An Analyst targets $90 as short-term and $180 as mid-term reasonable price expectation, while target price range widely varies by analysts. Once ZCASH enters into $70 zone, there is no big resistance, thus post-halving parabolic bull-run becomes realistic. A bad news is Altseason is ending right now, so if ZCASH dips below $47 shortly, this $47-$67 volume zone becomes huge resistance, which will delay post-halving bull-run. Even ZCASH’s daily mining dilution drops to BTC level, still miners’ selling pressure in ZEC is still immediate and much stronger than BTC.įrom technical analysis perspective, ZCASH has historical volume trade zone in $47-$67, where ZCASH is captured currently. So mined ZEC is immediately sold and converted into BTC. In ZCASH, mining pools provide automatic conversion of mined ZEC to BTC and many miners use this feature. Of course, mined BTC are converted to fiat to pay operating cost or secure profit, however miners’ selling pressure in BTC is relatively modest vs Altcoins. In Bitcoin, miners keep mined BTC and use them for purchasing new mining machines. However, one point I want to note as miner is that mining nature of Bitcoin and ZCASH is different. That is supportive for positive price development. Upon halving on 18-Nov, ZCASH mining reward becomes half, thus daily mining dilution will expected to be similar level with Bitcoin. 2-4 times larger mining dilution was held vs. trading volume ratio in the same period was around 0.1-0.23%, i.e. The ratio of new block generation vs trading volume was around 0.04-0.07%. daily trading volume of Bitcoin and ZCASH.Īfter 2020 May halving, 900 new Bitcoin is generated per day, while daily trading volume was around 1-7mn Bitcoin. 1.7% of BTC / 5.9% of DASH / 2.0% of XMR), which has caused continuous bear trend.īelow chart shows historical data of daily new block generation vs. The biggest problem of ZCASH is extreme inflation (dilution by new coin generation) of 25% per year (v.s. Following 3-years bear trend, analysts expect first ever bull run is coming for ZCASH.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |